Economy Highlights

US - Leading indicators rise in sign of growth rebound

The index of US leading indicators rose more than forecast in May after declining for the first time in almost a year, a sign economic growth may pick up by the end of 2011. The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months rose 0.8% after a revised 0.4% drop in April, the New York-based research group said. Another report showed consumer sentiment dropped more than forecast in June. (Bloomberg)

UK - Facing larger deficit because of weak economy

The Office for Budget Responsibility, Britain’s independent fiscal watchdog, said in March the government’s fiscal shortfall will be GBP368bn (USD596bn) between 2011 and 2016, GBP46bn more than Osborne predicted in October, as it lowered its 2011 growth estimate. The economy stagnated in the six months through March, while consumer spending slumped the most in almost two years in the first quarter. Surveys of manufacturing and services growth published earlier this month by Markit Economics Ltd. indicate economic growth this quarter may not exceed 0.3%. (Bloomberg)

Japan - Yen heading to new high on no intervention as fed rates on hold

As the Yen rallies to levels that prompted the Group of Seven to weaken the currency in March, traders are forecasting more gains, even as Japan falls into its third recession in a decade. Three months ago, the Yen soared as much as 8.5% in less than a week on speculation insurance companies would repatriate assets to pay for damages from the record earthquake and tsunami in northeastern Japan that triggered the worst nuclear disaster in 25 years. Now, politicians and central bankers are focused more on the slowdown in US growth, Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis and uprisings in the Middle East. (Bloomberg)

India - Signals slower pace of rate increases on global risks

India’s central bank signaled it may slow the most aggressive monetary tightening among Asia’s major economies as risks to global growth threaten to undermine consumer demand. Asian nations such as China and the Philippines refrained from boosting interest rates this week, pausing to gauge the strength of the global economy. The Reserve Bank of India said lead indicators suggest growth moderated in advanced and emerging countries, and uncertainty about the resolution of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis has “increased.” (Bloomberg)


China - Existing home market cools in May amid government curbs

China’s effort to cool home prices is damping the market for existing homes, with prices in May falling from the previous month in 23 of 70 cities measured. That’s more than the 16 cities that posted declines in April, data from the National Bureau of Statistics posted to its website June 18 showed. Existing home prices in Beijing fell 0.2% from April while those in Shanghai increased 0.2%. The price of new homes, typically sold by developers, rose last month in 67 of the 70 cities monitored. (Bloomberg)