US - Sales of new US homes fell more than forecast in January
Purchases of new houses in the US fell more than forecast in January, reflecting declines in the West and South that indicate a California tax credit and bad weather may have played a role. Sales declined 13% to a 284,000 annual pace, figures from the Commerce Department showed. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a decrease to a 305,000 rate. Demand dropped 37% in the West and 13% in the South. (Bloomberg)
US - Jobless claims fall
Fewer Americans than forecast filed first-time claims to collect jobless benefits last week, indicating companies are reducing the pace of firings as they grow more confident in the economic outlook. Applications for unemployment insurance decreased 22,000 to 391,000 in the week ended 19 Feb, the Labor Department said. Claims have fallen in three of the past four weeks, pushing down the monthly average to the lowest level since July 2008. (Bloomberg)
US - Consumer comfort rises to highest level since '08
Consumer confidence climbed to the highest level since April 2008 as Americans grew less pessimistic about their finances. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, formerly the ABC News US Weekly Consumer Comfort Index, was minus 39.2 in the period to 20 Feb, compared with minus 43.4 the prior week, a report showed. (Bloomberg)
EU - Europe economic confidence rises more than economists forecast
European confidence in the economic outlook improved more than economists forecast to the highest in 3 1/2 years in February, led by surging optimism in Germany. An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the euro region advanced to 107.8 from 106.8 in January 2011, the European Commission said. That’s the highest since August 2007. Economists had forecast a February reading of 106.8, the median of 28 estimates in a Bloomberg survey showed. (Bloomberg)
India - Mukherjee cutting debt sales drives flatter curve
For the first time in seven years India’s government may be preparing to reduce debt sales, spurring a rally in longer-dated bonds. Yields on 10-year bonds fell to within 27 basis points of two-year debt on 23 Feb, the least since December 2008, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Eight of 12 economists in a Bloomberg News survey predict policy makers will cut borrowings in the year starting April. (Bloomberg)
Friday, February 25, 2011
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Economy Highligts
US - Home prices in 20 cities fall 2.4% from year earlier
Residential real-estate prices dropped in the 12 months to December by the most in a year, a sign the US housing market is struggling even as the rest of the economy recovers. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of home values in 20 cities fell 2.4%, the biggest year-over-year decrease since December 2009, the group said today in New York. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a 2.3% decrease.(Bloomberg)
US - Confidence increases to three-year high
Confidence among US consumers rose in February to a three-year high exceeding forecasts as more Americans predicted the economy and their incomes will grow. The Conference Board’s sentiment index increased to 70.4, the highest level since February 2008, from 64.8 the prior month, according to figures today from the New York-based private research group. Another report showed home values dropped by the most in a year.(Bloomberg)
EU - Merkel says EU weighing extension of Greek aid program
German Chancellor Angela Merkel signaled that European Union leaders may be ready to renegotiate the terms of Greece’s bailout as part of a broader package to shore up confidence in the euro. The comments by Merkel, the leader of Europe’s biggest economy, are the first indication the EU may respond to calls to ease bailout conditions for indebted countries.(Bloomberg)
Japan - Moody's ignored as local investors snap up bonds
Japanese investors ignored another warning by a ratings company about the nation’s ballooning debt, buying bonds and sending yields back toward the level before the nation’s credit ranking was cut just a month ago. Government bond futures climbed the most in two months even after Moody’s Investors Service cut its outlook on the country’s credit rating, while costs increased to insure Japanese bonds against default. The divergence in market moves highlights a gap in perceptions between locals, who own about 95% of outstanding government notes, and overseas investors.(Bloomberg)
China - Wages undermine bond investors as inflation accelerates
China, the biggest brake on global inflation for two decades, is embracing wage increases that threaten to erode retailers’ margins and demand for bonds. Premier Wen Jiabao convenes the annual National People’s Congress March 5, where delegates will approve a five-year plan designed to elevate the role of domestic demand. Part of that strategy is endorsing higher pay, with all 31 Chinese provinces and regions likely to boost their minimum wages in 2011 for the second consecutive year, according to Credit Suisse Group AG.(Bloomberg)
Residential real-estate prices dropped in the 12 months to December by the most in a year, a sign the US housing market is struggling even as the rest of the economy recovers. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of home values in 20 cities fell 2.4%, the biggest year-over-year decrease since December 2009, the group said today in New York. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a 2.3% decrease.(Bloomberg)
US - Confidence increases to three-year high
Confidence among US consumers rose in February to a three-year high exceeding forecasts as more Americans predicted the economy and their incomes will grow. The Conference Board’s sentiment index increased to 70.4, the highest level since February 2008, from 64.8 the prior month, according to figures today from the New York-based private research group. Another report showed home values dropped by the most in a year.(Bloomberg)
EU - Merkel says EU weighing extension of Greek aid program
German Chancellor Angela Merkel signaled that European Union leaders may be ready to renegotiate the terms of Greece’s bailout as part of a broader package to shore up confidence in the euro. The comments by Merkel, the leader of Europe’s biggest economy, are the first indication the EU may respond to calls to ease bailout conditions for indebted countries.(Bloomberg)
Japan - Moody's ignored as local investors snap up bonds
Japanese investors ignored another warning by a ratings company about the nation’s ballooning debt, buying bonds and sending yields back toward the level before the nation’s credit ranking was cut just a month ago. Government bond futures climbed the most in two months even after Moody’s Investors Service cut its outlook on the country’s credit rating, while costs increased to insure Japanese bonds against default. The divergence in market moves highlights a gap in perceptions between locals, who own about 95% of outstanding government notes, and overseas investors.(Bloomberg)
China - Wages undermine bond investors as inflation accelerates
China, the biggest brake on global inflation for two decades, is embracing wage increases that threaten to erode retailers’ margins and demand for bonds. Premier Wen Jiabao convenes the annual National People’s Congress March 5, where delegates will approve a five-year plan designed to elevate the role of domestic demand. Part of that strategy is endorsing higher pay, with all 31 Chinese provinces and regions likely to boost their minimum wages in 2011 for the second consecutive year, according to Credit Suisse Group AG.(Bloomberg)
Friday, February 18, 2011
Economy Highlights
US - Index of leading economic indicators climbs 0.1%
The index of US leading indicators rose in January for the seventh straight month, signaling the expansion will extend into this year. The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months increased 0.1% after rising 0.8% in December, the New York-based group said. The median forecast of economists surveyed was for a 0.2% gain. (Bloomberg)
US - Consumer prices rise more than forecast
Rising global demand for food and fuel pushed up the US cost of living more than forecast in January, a sign the risk of a damaging drop in prices is ebbing. The consumer-price index advanced 0.4% for a second month, led by the biggest increase in food costs in more than two years, according to figures from the Labor Department. Other reports showed manufacturing is bolstering the expansion, and consumer confidence is being buffeted by rising household expenses. (Bloomberg)
US - Fed tells banks to test capital for recession
The Federal Reserve ordered the 19 largest US banks to test their capital levels against a scenario of renewed recession with unemployment rising above 11%, said two people with knowledge of the review. The banks stress-tested the performance of their loans, securities, earnings, and capital against at least three possible economic outcomes as part of a broader capital-planning exercise. The banks, including some seeking to increase dividends cut during the financial crisis, submitted their plans last month. The Fed will finish its review in March. (Bloomberg)
China - Foreign investment rose 23.4% in January
Foreign direct investment in China climbed in January, adding to record inflows last year that are complicating Premier Wen Jiabao’s efforts to tame inflation in the world’s fastest-growing major economy. Investment rose 23.4% to USD10bn last month from a year earlier, the Ministry of Commerce said. Estimates of four economists surveyed ranged from an increase of 10% to 23%. (Bloomberg)
Singapore - Raises inflation forecast on record growth
Singapore raised its inflation and export forecasts for 2011 after the economy expanded at a record pace last year, sustaining pressure on the central bank to allow greater currency appreciation. Consumer prices may climb as much as 4% this year while exports may rise 10%, the trade ministry said. The economy expanded a revised 14.5% in 2010, with gross domestic product growing an annualized 3.9% in the three months to 31 Dec from the previous quarter, it said. (Bloomberg)
The index of US leading indicators rose in January for the seventh straight month, signaling the expansion will extend into this year. The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months increased 0.1% after rising 0.8% in December, the New York-based group said. The median forecast of economists surveyed was for a 0.2% gain. (Bloomberg)
US - Consumer prices rise more than forecast
Rising global demand for food and fuel pushed up the US cost of living more than forecast in January, a sign the risk of a damaging drop in prices is ebbing. The consumer-price index advanced 0.4% for a second month, led by the biggest increase in food costs in more than two years, according to figures from the Labor Department. Other reports showed manufacturing is bolstering the expansion, and consumer confidence is being buffeted by rising household expenses. (Bloomberg)
US - Fed tells banks to test capital for recession
The Federal Reserve ordered the 19 largest US banks to test their capital levels against a scenario of renewed recession with unemployment rising above 11%, said two people with knowledge of the review. The banks stress-tested the performance of their loans, securities, earnings, and capital against at least three possible economic outcomes as part of a broader capital-planning exercise. The banks, including some seeking to increase dividends cut during the financial crisis, submitted their plans last month. The Fed will finish its review in March. (Bloomberg)
China - Foreign investment rose 23.4% in January
Foreign direct investment in China climbed in January, adding to record inflows last year that are complicating Premier Wen Jiabao’s efforts to tame inflation in the world’s fastest-growing major economy. Investment rose 23.4% to USD10bn last month from a year earlier, the Ministry of Commerce said. Estimates of four economists surveyed ranged from an increase of 10% to 23%. (Bloomberg)
Singapore - Raises inflation forecast on record growth
Singapore raised its inflation and export forecasts for 2011 after the economy expanded at a record pace last year, sustaining pressure on the central bank to allow greater currency appreciation. Consumer prices may climb as much as 4% this year while exports may rise 10%, the trade ministry said. The economy expanded a revised 14.5% in 2010, with gross domestic product growing an annualized 3.9% in the three months to 31 Dec from the previous quarter, it said. (Bloomberg)
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Economy Highlights
US - Retail sales climb less than forecast
Sales at retailers rose less than forecast in January, showing it will be difficult for American consumers to sustain last quarter’s pick-up in spending without bigger gains in employment. Purchases increased 0.3%, the smallest gain since a drop in June, according to Commerce Department figures today in Washington. Other reports showed manufacturing in the New York area accelerated and confidence among home builders stagnated. (Bloomberg)
US - Deficit to hit record USD1.6trn
President Barack Obama sent Congress a USD3.7trn budget that projects the federal deficit will exceed USD1trn for the fourth consecutive year in 2012 before falling to a more “sustainable” levels by the middle of the decade. The deficit for the current fiscal year is forecast to hit a record USD1.6trn-10.9% of gross domestic product-up from the USD1.4trn the administration estimated previously. It would be USD1.1trn in 2012, 7% of GDP. By 2015 it would decline to USD607bn, or 3.2% GDP.(StarBiz)
Euro - Economy expands less than economists forecast
Europe’s economy expanded less than economists forecast in the fourth quarter as cold weather curbed German output and French growth unexpectedly stalled. Gross domestic product in the euro region rose 0.3% from the previous three months, when it increased at the same rate, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. Economists had forecast the economy to expand 0.4%, the median of 37 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey showed.(Bloomberg)
South Korea - Unemployment rate increased to 3.6% in January
South Korea’s unemployment rate rose to 3.6% in January from a revised 3.5% in December, Statistics Korea said today in Gwacheon, south of Seoul. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of eight economists was for a jobless rate of 3.7%.(Bloomberg)
Japan - Swap spreads hit two-year high on BOJ rate view
The bond market premium to lock in interest rates for three years rose to the highest since October 2008 as Nomura Securities Co. said the end of the central bank’s zero rate policy is getting closer. The gap between the cost of swap contracts to lock in fixed rates for three years compared with one year reached 0.17 percentage point on 9 Feb, the widest since 14 Oct 2008. The spread was at 0.15562 yesterday. (Bloomberg)
Sales at retailers rose less than forecast in January, showing it will be difficult for American consumers to sustain last quarter’s pick-up in spending without bigger gains in employment. Purchases increased 0.3%, the smallest gain since a drop in June, according to Commerce Department figures today in Washington. Other reports showed manufacturing in the New York area accelerated and confidence among home builders stagnated. (Bloomberg)
US - Deficit to hit record USD1.6trn
President Barack Obama sent Congress a USD3.7trn budget that projects the federal deficit will exceed USD1trn for the fourth consecutive year in 2012 before falling to a more “sustainable” levels by the middle of the decade. The deficit for the current fiscal year is forecast to hit a record USD1.6trn-10.9% of gross domestic product-up from the USD1.4trn the administration estimated previously. It would be USD1.1trn in 2012, 7% of GDP. By 2015 it would decline to USD607bn, or 3.2% GDP.(StarBiz)
Euro - Economy expands less than economists forecast
Europe’s economy expanded less than economists forecast in the fourth quarter as cold weather curbed German output and French growth unexpectedly stalled. Gross domestic product in the euro region rose 0.3% from the previous three months, when it increased at the same rate, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. Economists had forecast the economy to expand 0.4%, the median of 37 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey showed.(Bloomberg)
South Korea - Unemployment rate increased to 3.6% in January
South Korea’s unemployment rate rose to 3.6% in January from a revised 3.5% in December, Statistics Korea said today in Gwacheon, south of Seoul. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of eight economists was for a jobless rate of 3.7%.(Bloomberg)
Japan - Swap spreads hit two-year high on BOJ rate view
The bond market premium to lock in interest rates for three years rose to the highest since October 2008 as Nomura Securities Co. said the end of the central bank’s zero rate policy is getting closer. The gap between the cost of swap contracts to lock in fixed rates for three years compared with one year reached 0.17 percentage point on 9 Feb, the widest since 14 Oct 2008. The spread was at 0.15562 yesterday. (Bloomberg)
Friday, February 11, 2011
Economy Highlights
US - Mortgage rates for US loans rise to 10-month high
US mortgage rates climbed to a 10-month high, reducing affordability for homebuyers as the housing market struggles to recover from depressed levels. The average rate for a 30-year fixed loan rose to 5.05% from 4.81%, the fourth straight gain, Freddie Mac said in a statement. The average 15-year rate increased to 4.29% from 4.08%. (Bloomberg)
US - Initial jobless claims fell 36,000 to 383,000
The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance fell to the lowest level since July 2008, showing further strength in the labor market after the jobless rate declined to a 21-month low. Applications for jobless benefits decreased by 36,000, more than forecast, to 383,000, Labor Department figures showed. Economists forecast claims would fall to 410,000, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. (Bloomberg)
Malaysia - India-Malaysia trade volume seen doubling in 5 years
The trade volume between India and Malaysia is expected to double in five years with the signing next week of a three-in-one free trade agreement (FTA). Indian High Commissioner to Malaysia Vijay Gokhale, when disclosing this during his first visit to Sabah, said this was inevitable because tariffs would then be lower. Trade volume between the two countries was worth around RM32bn last year. (Financial Daily)
Malaysia - Dec IPI grows 4.2% on rising non-E&E activities
The country's industrial output expanded 4.2% in December compared to a year ago, on increased manufacturing activities in the non-electrical and electronic (E&E) sector. E&E makes up about 40% of the export market. The Statistics Department said for the whole year, industrial output activities had increased by 7.5% y-o-y, with manufacturing posting a 11% growth while electricity generation rose by 8.8%. The output of the mining sector, however, slipped by 0.5%. (Business Times)
EU - German exports increased in December
German exports increased for a second month in December as the global recovery boosted demand for goods and services from Europe’s largest economy. Exports, adjusted for work days and seasonal changes, rose 0.5% m-o-m after a 0.5% increase in November. Economist had forecasted a 1% gain. Imports dropped 2.3% m-o-m, after jumping 4.1% in November. Germany’s economy expanded a record 3.6% in 2010 as companies boosted output and hiring to meet orders. German exports rose 21% y-o-y in December. Shipments to countries within the EU advanced 20% for the full year of 2010 while sales to countries outside the EU increased 21%. In 2010, exports gained 18.5% y-o-y. (Bloomberg)
US mortgage rates climbed to a 10-month high, reducing affordability for homebuyers as the housing market struggles to recover from depressed levels. The average rate for a 30-year fixed loan rose to 5.05% from 4.81%, the fourth straight gain, Freddie Mac said in a statement. The average 15-year rate increased to 4.29% from 4.08%. (Bloomberg)
US - Initial jobless claims fell 36,000 to 383,000
The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance fell to the lowest level since July 2008, showing further strength in the labor market after the jobless rate declined to a 21-month low. Applications for jobless benefits decreased by 36,000, more than forecast, to 383,000, Labor Department figures showed. Economists forecast claims would fall to 410,000, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. (Bloomberg)
Malaysia - India-Malaysia trade volume seen doubling in 5 years
The trade volume between India and Malaysia is expected to double in five years with the signing next week of a three-in-one free trade agreement (FTA). Indian High Commissioner to Malaysia Vijay Gokhale, when disclosing this during his first visit to Sabah, said this was inevitable because tariffs would then be lower. Trade volume between the two countries was worth around RM32bn last year. (Financial Daily)
Malaysia - Dec IPI grows 4.2% on rising non-E&E activities
The country's industrial output expanded 4.2% in December compared to a year ago, on increased manufacturing activities in the non-electrical and electronic (E&E) sector. E&E makes up about 40% of the export market. The Statistics Department said for the whole year, industrial output activities had increased by 7.5% y-o-y, with manufacturing posting a 11% growth while electricity generation rose by 8.8%. The output of the mining sector, however, slipped by 0.5%. (Business Times)
EU - German exports increased in December
German exports increased for a second month in December as the global recovery boosted demand for goods and services from Europe’s largest economy. Exports, adjusted for work days and seasonal changes, rose 0.5% m-o-m after a 0.5% increase in November. Economist had forecasted a 1% gain. Imports dropped 2.3% m-o-m, after jumping 4.1% in November. Germany’s economy expanded a record 3.6% in 2010 as companies boosted output and hiring to meet orders. German exports rose 21% y-o-y in December. Shipments to countries within the EU advanced 20% for the full year of 2010 while sales to countries outside the EU increased 21%. In 2010, exports gained 18.5% y-o-y. (Bloomberg)
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